Will Restore Britain beat Reform UK in the Makerfield by election?
Ignore the polls, what is happening on the ground?
AMAZING ARTWORK IN SUPPORT OF RESTORE BRITAIN
DOES IT MATTER IF LABOUR WINS?
The current Labour MP stepped down so that Mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham can have a go at becoming a Member of Parliament, in order to challenge for the leadership.
People really resent having to go to the polls unnecessarily.
And if Burnham does win, then the mayoralty of Manchester becomes vacant. More elections, and expense on the public purse. Just to bolster his ego and political ambition. I doubt that it is popular at the best of times. Wasting money at a time of great hardship is not popular.
He might be a better or a worse Prime Minister than Keir Starmer. If he is worse then that dooms Labour to oblivion at the next general election.
If he is better it is unlikely that he will be dramatically better. And Labour will still be doomed at the next general election.
In other words, for most ordinary people trying to survive in an increasingly fraught world, it matters very little.
Maybe it is exciting for politics geeks. And maybe Labour supporters think that Burnham is the messiah. The reality is that he is not the messiah, he is a very naughty boy!
As a reminder, in the 2015 Labour leadership contest, Burnham came a bad second to Jeremy Corbyn! Corbyn enthusiasts would chant “Oh Jeremy Corbyn”. They seemed genuinely enthused. I hear no chanting for Burnham. Even his supporters seem not really to believe in his message. Because he is a flip-flopper. He has no vision. He is cynically using whatever fashionable cause he can latch on to, in order to further his career. It is plainly obvious.
Maybe he will win Makerfield. But so what if he does? It is not particularly interesting or unexpected if he did.
A far more interesting question is: Will Restore Britain beat Reform UK?
I think they are in with a chance.
Why?
Because the UK is in increasing trouble from Islam. People are starting to notice. Ordinary people, not just politics geeks.
And they notice that Reform UK will also be appeasers of Islam. No great surprise, as they have several Muslims in prominent positions. Farage is proud to have opposed Tommy Robinson. Farage promised to give an inquiry into the Muslim rape gangs, but never did. And he proudly tried to put Rupert Lowe into prison, over a policy disagreement!
The drama of the Labour Party is just not very important. This is what is important: Restore Britain or Reform UK? Anti-Islam or Islam appeasement?
I have a gut feeling that Restore Britain will come ahead of Reform. For various reasons.
REASON 1: FARAGE IS UNABLE TO FORM A TALENTED TEAM
Decent people do not like to see unfair treatment. They cannot abide cruel and vindictive behaviour.
Farage has a very long history of falling out with people. Capable, talented people.
The problems arise when they disagree with him.
And he does not listen to the concerns of his own party members. I have had direct experience of that, and is the reason why I left UKIP in 2015. I am not just a random commenter on political matters, I have lived through it directly.
The supporters of Farage have a rose-tinted view of him. I know exactly how that is so, because I was once one of you!
It takes a coordinated effort of very many people within a party for it to succeed. If it is dysfunctional at the top, then it cannot succeed. People begin to notice.
Dysfunction at the top of the Labour Party is the reason this by election was called.
REASON 2: FARAGE TRIED TO DESTROY RUPERT LOWE
They fell out over a policy disagreement. They could have gone their separate ways relatively amicably. But no, Farage tried to destroy Lowe. And nearly succeeded in having him thrown into prison!
The police investigated the allegations, and took it no further. It is surprising that Farage and his minions were not charged with wasting police time.
Farage brags about what he did to Lowe!
Rupert Lowe, quote:
Right. Just so we’re all clear. Farage and Reform tried to put me in prison because I backed the mass deportation of Pakistani child rapists and their foreign wives/relatives who allowed it to happen. My home was raided by armed police late on a Friday night as a direct result of Reform’s allegations. My guns were seized. They tried to ruin my life. In every way.
Farage admitted on national television it was all because I backed mass deportations. He said that was the moment they realised they ‘had to get rid’ of me. Not the bullshit allegations they went to the police with, but the fact I want the Pakistani rapists removed from our country. He admitted it. That all happened.
Fair enough. I took it on the chin, and planned out our next step. I founded Restore Britain to give the British people the democratic option to agree with me. Restore Britain will, without apology, deport every last foreign rapist and all foreign accomplices who knew it was happening, yet failed to act. If that means entire communities go, that means entire communities go. I really don’t care. We will rid Britain of that cancer.
Now Reform are incandescently angry that we are giving the British people that choice. Deploying increasingly desperate smears against our movement. If people don’t agree, they can vote for someone else who won’t deport. There are plenty of options - Reform, Labour, Tories. Take your pick. Go for it. But if you want those evil scumbags out of our country, along with every foreign coward who enabled it? You now have that genuine option. Restore Britain.
/ end quote
REASON 3: AT LEAST A THIRD OF REFORM VOTERS ARE JUST LENDING THEIR VOTE TO REFORM UK
How do we know this?
Because a third of voters for Reform also support Tommy Robinson. Farage has attempted to distance himself from Tommy Robinson. And has made a number of public statements castigating Robinson.
Here is the problem for Farage: Robinson has become the icon for the resistance against Islam and its evils. By being so critical of Robinson, Farage is disenfranchising all of those who see Islam itself as the threat.
Rupert Lowe has said nothing at all disparaging of Robinson as far as I can see. And he has recognised that Robinson has for many years opposed the evils of Islam such as the rape gangs. And has been thrown in prison for his efforts. Remember that Farage also wanted Lowe thrown in prison for opposing such evils.
See this article. It is written from a left wing perspective, but they have helpfully conducted a survey. The survey results should be giving Farage nightmares!
1 in 3 Reform UK voters has a positive view of Tommy Robinson
The public believes many more people support the far-right activist’s mass protests but are afraid to admit it, according to The POLITICO Poll.
https://www.politico.eu/article/one-in-three-reform-uk-voters-positive-view-far-right-tommy-robinson/
REASON 4: A FOCUSED APPROACH NOT SCATTERGUN
Rupert Lowe is smart. Rather than the scattergun approach that was characteristic of UKIP and is now characteristic of Reform, he is approaching politics with surgical precision.
You may or may not agree with the policies of the Liberal Democrats. However they do focus their campaigning efforts, and so win seats. Far greater numbers of seats than their national percentage vote share would imply. Rupert Lowe seems to have seen that this is highly effective.
In the recent local elections, Restore Britain deliberately did not stand candidates everywhere. Just in the Great Yarmouth area. And won every single seat very decisively! That is utterly brilliant!
Having boosted morale, this adds to their momentum. A scattergun approach would almost certainly have had patchy results, and so diminished morale. I have had direct experience of that during my time in UKIP. A diffuse effort by a handful of people gets you precisely nowhere. A focussed effort by many people would have been far more effective. Again that comes down to dysfunctional leadership.
REASON 5: A LARGE NUMBER OF ENTHUSIASTIC CAMPAIGNERS
You absolutely must visit every property in the constituency. As a minimum delivering a leaflet. And by preference actually speaking to people.
A constituency comprises typically 100,000 people. Say 40,000 properties.
You need hundreds of people to visit them all.
In a typical leafleting session of say 3 hours you maybe can deliver to some 300 properties. Depends on terrain and type of properties. A hilly area with long driveways takes far longer than terraced houses directly onto the pavement.
How many sessions would it take one person to cover 40,000 properties? Just to post the leaflets. Around 133 sessions!
Or one session with 133 volunteers. Assuming it is well coordinated of course!
Restore Britain is fielding hundreds of campaigners. They will have no difficulty at all covering every single property in the constituency. Several times over!
It is in fact quite an astonishing achievement in itself!
Contrast that with the lonely figure of Matt Goodwin trying to win the Gorton by election for Reform UK. Yes he put in a huge effort himself, and full credit for that, but with minimal others helping him. No wonder he did badly. He seems not to be a favourite of Farage. Goodwin is in the wrong party, as a staunch critic of Islam.
REASON 6: RESTORE BRITAIN HAS A GOOD LOCAL CANDIDATE
She comes across as a sensible down to earth person. Not someone in it for themselves. Not parachuted in.
And as a horse enthusiast, she is well used to removing manure from the stables. A Herculean task indeed. She is up for it! Huge respect.
REASON 7: REFORM UK APPEASES ISLAM
This is the big one for me. I would lend my vote to Reform if there are no better candidates available, but that lack of alternative is rapidly changing now!
Here is a recent example of that appeasement:
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My prayers are with Restore Britain! Hope the people will vote smart!
Difficult to say. The MSM are generally throwing everything behind Reform, which should in itself be a wake-up call.. The difficult to reach out to as far as Restore are concerned are the BBC watchers, the Daily Mail readers. Why? Because they've never heard of Restore. I encounter that all the time with older people. Social media has been how Restore's profile has risen, especially amongst the under 50's. Whether that's enough is another thing. Restore has the policy of engaging with previous non voters, and there they seem successful.