When is the REAL election date in Makerfield?

Elections are won or lost by misunderstanding this reality.

IF YOU DON’T UNDERSTAND THIS, YOU MAY WELL LOSE

The postal ballot is key.

The timescale for that is a couple of weeks before the polling day.

Labour relies heavily on the postal vote. They have been in this constituency a very long time. They almost certainly know how to get the postal voters to vote.

Reform UK may do very well in this election. But how good has their campaigning really been? Have they already effectively lost, due to failing to address the postal vote?

THE NEWNESS OF REFORM UK

People generally do things out of habit. And that includes voting. Reform has the difficult task of persuading people to change their habit.

Everyone will have heard of Nigel Farage. And have a fair understanding of his political aims. But here is a key point: the voters of Makerfield are voting for their local MP primarily, not for Farage or for Reform UK immigration or other policies.

Is the candidate likely to be helpful for them locally? Will he work hard to address their specific problems?

A leaflet and possibly a few minutes on the doorstep might not be sufficient to swing them away from their old voting habits.

A leaflet can only sensibly convey a picture or two, and a few bullet points. It cannot give a sense of depth.

A SLIM NEWSPAPER

The Lib Dems are good at doing these. And in Lib Dem areas they are effective.

This of course is not a Lib Dem area, however the same principle applies.

The newspaper format allows for a number of articles. Describing the candidate in more depth. What they have done, what their thoughts are, what they see as needed locally. A far more rounded picture than can be achieved with just a leaflet.

It crucially has to be delivered in advance of the postal ballot.

Time has probably run out now for this particular election.

RESTORE BRITAIN

I have a very great respect for Rupert Lowe, and Restore Britain is more aligned to my own concerns and perspective than is Reform UK. However…

this is more or less virgin territory for them. It is attempting to sprint from a standing start.

Their candidate is an excellent person. She is evidently hard working and enthusiastic. And would make a great MP.

And it does appear that the sheer numbers of volunteers is greater than for the other parties. A member of the party told me that their canvassers have visited every address. A huge achievement in itself. That is around 40,000 doors to knock.

Their absolutely key advantage over Labour and Reform UK, is the potential to energise normally non-voters to actually get out and vote. However the deadline for persuading people to register to vote has already past. Hopefully they can have persuaded large numbers to do so. And if so, it could provide significant political upset. Possibly then giving Reform UK a good run for their money.

I would like Restore Britain to win outright of course. However, if they beat Reform UK that would be seen as a significant victory. Or even come close to doing so would be a considerable achievement, and be a great springboard for successes elsewhere.

It is extraordinarily difficult to start a new party and have success. What has been achieved so far is astonishing in such a short timescale. To be polling up towards 10% is amazing for a new party. UKIP took some two decades to reach that level, in context.

BURNHAM ALREADY LOST TWICE

I know a member of the Labour Party socially. I asked her what she thinks of Andy Burnham. She is extremely irate with him. Why? Because he is wasting party funds and public money on his egotistical bid for the Labour leadership.

She pointed out to me that he already lost the Labour leadership contest twice. First against Ed Miliband in 2010, and secondly quite badly to Jeremy Corbyn in 2015.

I remember the latter quite well, as I had become more involved in politics by 2015. Burnham has the habit of pontificating on matters that are nothing to do with him, and coming up with utterly bizarre suggestions. In 2015 he had the mad idea of withdrawing the England football team from the world cup, because there were some difficulties inside the football governing body. That suggestion did not go down well, and he was relentlessly mocked in the comments section of Labour List. For that and various other of his mad ideas.

Negative campaigning generally does not help the candidate doing the negativity. However, the voters of Makerfield need to understand just how nutty Burnham really is. Some traditional Labour voters probably do know by now. They might just stay at home, and not vote.

We live in interesting times!

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