Telegraph: Why Starmer cannot afford to lose more Muslim voters

Data shows this community has the power to deliver a devastating blow to Labour at the ballot box

Hellish 2050

Mar 04, 2026

TELEGRAPH

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/04/labour-party-muslim-voters-data-analysis/

Why Starmer cannot afford to lose more Muslim voters

Data shows this community has the power to deliver a devastating blow to Labour at the ballot box

Ollie Corfe Senior Data Journalist

Published 04 March 2026 6:00am GMT

Donald Trump has suggested Sir Keir Starmer’s reluctance to support US-Israeli attacks on Iran is because of his fear of a backlash from Muslims at the ballot box.

Asked by a journalist on Tuesday if Sir Keir was pandering to Muslim voters, the US president said: “It could be.”

Whether or not the Prime Minister is “pandering”, he will be well aware of the impact the community’s support – or lack of it – will have on his chances of clinging to power.

The British Election Study found that 80 per cent of Muslims voted for the Labour Party at the 2019 general election, but this changed radically in 2024.

In seats where Muslims made up at least a tenth of the population, Labour suffered a 12 percentage point drop between 2019 and 2024. That compared to a 1.6 percentage point increase in its vote share nationally.

This key group for Labour turned towards pro-Gaza candidates because of the Government’s support for Israel after it went to war with Hamas in 2023. The proscription of Palestine Action as a terrorist organisation has only accelerated this electoral migration.

The Gorton and Denton by-election on Thursday – in a constituency where 28 per cent of the population is Muslim – gave No 10 further cause for concern. The Green Party won after being accused of running a cynical “sectarian” campaign by urging voters in the Manchester suburb to “punish” Labour for Gaza.

Zack Polanski, the Greens’ leader, has repeatedly accused Israel of genocide in Gaza, and Labour, which came third behind Reform UK, accused his party of “manipulating” Muslim voters.

Labour’s vote share in Gorton and Denton almost halved from the 50.8 per cent it had in 2024. If that were replicated across the country at a general election, 111 constituencies with large Muslim populations could wreak havoc for Labour’s chances.

Islam is the fastest-growing faith in Britain. There were 3.9 million Muslims in England and Wales at the time of the latest census – more than double the 1.5 million 20 years ago.

Muslims’ influence on elections is often accentuated because first-past-the-post rewards concentrated support, which tends to happen in urban areas.

While Muslim people made up 6.5 per cent of the population overall in 2021, 59 per cent of the population in Bradford West is Muslim. In Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley, it is 54 per cent.

Across the 111 constituencies where more than 10 per cent of the population is Muslim, more than half a million votes went to independent candidates or the pro-Palestine Workers Party of Britain at the 2024 general election.

Four months earlier, George Galloway won the Rochdale by-election by making Gaza the centrepiece of his campaign, before losing it at the election.

Labour lost four seats to independents in areas with an above-average share of Muslim voters in 2024 – with Khalid Mahmood in Birmingham Perry Barr and Kate Hollern in Blackburn among the candidates beaten by pro-Gaza independents.

Jeremy Corbyn claimed Islington North as an independent with a majority of more than 7,000 votes, after saying on polling day: “Today, Palestine is on the ballot.”

The former Labour leader went on to found Your Party with fellow Labour defector Zarah Sultana. A constituency-level survey by Electoral Calculus shows the new party would have taken four seats at a general election held in January.

The Greens have become an even greater threat. The same poll – conducted in December – handed the party 52 MPs. If, however, the party’s success in Gorton and Denton were replicated nationwide, the tally would be 249, mostly taken from Labour.

These pressures leave many members of Sir Keir’s front-bench acutely exposed.

Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, represents Birmingham Ladywood, which has the third-highest percentage of Muslim constituents in the country (49 per cent). In 2019, she won 83 per cent of the vote, dropping to 40 per cent in 2024.

Only Naz Shah in Bradford West, the most Muslim constituency in Britain, suffered a more dramatic swing, losing 45 percentage points.

The Prime Minister and seven of his ministers sit in seats with Muslim populations of at least 10 per cent. Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, sits in Ilford North, a 31 per cent Muslim constituency. He has the slimmest majority of all: he ended up just 528 votes ahead of Leanne Mohamad, standing as an independent.

Sir Tony Blair’s decision as prime minister to invade Iraq alongside the US in 2003 turned many Muslim voters against Labour. Six months later, the Liberal Democrats overturned a record majority in north London’s Brent East by-election.

Israel’s invasion of Gaza in response to Hamas’s attack on Oct 7, 2023 reopened these wounds.

With the UK being drawn, however reluctantly, into the US and Israel’s war with Iran, the potential political fallout among the majority of Iranian-heritage Muslims in Britain is tougher to gauge.

Iranians worldwide have rejoiced at the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s brutal dictator.

At the last count there were 85,000 people in the UK born in the Sunni-majority Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar. They are most likely to support the military action as Iranian missiles and drones target the wider region.

Weighed against this are nearly 10 times as many people with British-Pakistani, Bangladeshi or Iraqi heritage.

On Tuesday, Darren Jones, the Cabinet minister, rejected Mr Trump’s suggestion that Sir Keir may be pandering to Muslim voters. Mr Jones can at least sleep easy, cushioned as he is by a large majority in a constituency with a small – 4 per cent – Muslim population.

Many other Labour MPs will be feeling considerably less secure.

SUPPORT “PROJECT PHOENIX”

Upgrade to a paid subscription and receve FOUR ebooks (PDF files) as a thank you! Including the book “Project Phoenix UK”.

My calling is to do something positive, every day, to push back against the darkness that is surrounding us now. The encircling gloom.

I have written over 20 books, with more coming. See the Book Catalogue article, below. My books are supportive of our freedoms, and are supportive of Israel.

I was fired from my job as an electronics engineer at a UK university. My “crime”: writing a book that criticises Islam. I have subsequently written numerous more books on this topic. I cannot now get another professional job, as I am on the blacklist of Hope not Hate. I have to subsist on low value jobs such as gardening and dog sitting. And selling books too!

I ask for your support, it is gratefully received. Please upgrade to a paid subscription and / or buy me a coffee. It is appreciated!

Paid subscribers to my substack receive FOUR free ebooks (PDF files). After subscribing, go to the article below to download them. Note that your payment will appear with the description: “BOOKS AND SUBSCRIPTION” on your bank statement.

You can also support my work via “Buy me a coffee”. Here is the link: https://buymeacoffee.com/hellish2050 Note: the page is sometimes slow to load (20+ seconds), be patient!